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Working Papers

Currency Centrality in Equity Markets, Exchange Rates and Global Financial Cycles
Rey, H., Stavrakeva, V.
Abstract:The paper explores empirically the tight links between exchange rates and the global network of equity holdings. Exchange rates can be expressed in terms of “equity net currency supplies”, ie local currency stock market capitalization minus equity holdings, denominated in investors’ currencies, as well as elasticities, reflecting the “centrality” of currencies in global equity markets. The observed components of our exchange rate decomposition account for, on average, 95% of the monthly variation of 28 bilateral currency crosses vis-à-vis the USD and 98% vis-à-vis the EUR. We use the decomposition to elucidate the unique role of the USD in transmitting risk aversion and US macroeconomic news throughout the global equity network. Our findings contribute towards explaining global financial cycles and “risk-on”/“risk-off” episodes.
Elephants in Equity Markets
Rey, H., Rousset-Planat, A., Stavrakeva, V., Tang, J.
Abstract:We introduce a novel empirical decomposition of equity price growth rates in terms of equity holdings, based on market-clearing conditions. Although our sample holdings cover only an average of 5% of market capitalization, our reconstructed equity holdings account for, on average, 89% of the time variation in over 20,000 individual stock prices and 96% of the fluctuations in 33 aggregate stock markets. Using this decomposition, we introduce new stylized facts to inform asset pricing models. We find that changes in portfolio weights explain most of the variation of individual stock prices, while aggregate wealth effects are more important for the overall stock market fluctuations. Equity markets are global and exchange rates play a key equilibrating role. They dampen local stock market volatility for all stock markets, except those associated with the three safe-haven currencies---USD, JPY, and CHF---and currencies pegged to the USD.
Topography of the FX Derivatives Market: A View From London
Hacioglu-Hoke, S., Ostry, D., Rey, H., Rousset -Planat,A., Stavrakeva, V., Tang, J.
Abstract:We analyse the behaviour of all financial and non‑financial firms active in the UK FX derivatives market–the largest global centre for currency trading–using transaction‑level data. Based on firm‑level net currency derivatives exposures, we find that UK and EU pension funds, investment funds, insurers, and non‑financial corporations use FX derivatives primarily for hedging purposes, with dealer banks accommodating these clients’ hedging needs. In contrast, hedge funds predominantly utilise FX derivatives to speculate, with their trading activity consistent with carry trade, momentum, and macroeconomic news investment strategies. Lastly, the paper documents many novel facts that should motivate theoretical models.
Interpreting Turbulent Episodes in International Finance
Rey, H., Stavrakeva, V.
Abstract:We study the anatomy of the international portfolio finance network. As global financial linkages have become denser over time, cross-border portfolio equity positions have grown in importance relative to debt for Emerging markets and Advanced economies. Using the framework developed by Stavrakeva and Rey (2024), we construct a novel proxy of daily foreign investor holdings in both equity and long-term sovereign debt markets across 32 currency areas. Leveraging an instrumental variable strategy, we identify an effect of foreign equity ETF inflows on exchange rates and local stock market prices. Our high-frequency proxy enables us to interpret episodes of turbulence in international finance. It should prove useful to assess how persistent the current shocks to the international financial system are likely to be.
The Ins and Outs of Chinese Monetary Policy Transmission
Miranda-Agrippino, S., Nenova, T., Rey, H.
Abstract:Using a novel indicator for the People's Bank of China monetary policy stance, we estimate a policy rule that accounts for the dual nature of its price stability mandate---encompassing domestic inflation and the exchange rate---and for the evolution of its operational framework. The" Ins": The domestic transmission follows textbook patterns, with exceptions due to the active management of the renminbi and the financial account. The" Outs": International spillovers are powerful and affect commodity markets, global production and trade. The pass-through to foreign (US) prices is substantial. Financial spillovers are second-order, and mostly derivative from trade spillovers.
Granular Credit Risk*
Galaasen, S., Jamilov, R., Juelsrud, R., Rey, H.
Latest Draft: 25 Sep 2023
The Anatomy of Cyber Risk
Jamilov, R, Rey, H, Tahoun, A
Latest Draft: 16 Oct 2023,   First Draft: 01 Jan 2021
Answering the Queen: Machine Learning and Financial Crises
Fouliard, J., Howell, M., Rey, H., Stavrakeva, V.
Global Real Rates: A Secular Approach
Gourinchas, P.O., Rey, H., Sauzet, M.
First Draft: 09 Nov 2016
Global Footprints of Monetary Policies
Miranda-Agrippino, S., Nenova, T., Rey, H.
Exorbitant Privilege and Exorbitant Duty*
Gourinchas, P.O., Rey, H., Govillot, N.
Latest Draft: 23 Oct 2017,   First Draft: 01 Aug 2010
'Aggregation Bias' DOES Explain the PPP Puzzle
Imbs J., Mumtaz H., Ravn M., Rey H.
Date Published: 26 Aug 2005
 

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